Udinese +0 Asian Handicap at 1.88 with Pinnacle ( min 1.83) - 2 units

Torino

  • As we know from last week's write up in the Turin derby, Torino are a team playing in a number of high scoring games this season (3.19 goals per 90), Marco Giampaolo has this Torino side playing better football but at the back they're still too frail
  • Torino have conceded 2.4 goals per game and are giving up 1.76xGA per match in Serie A this season. The only clean sheet they kept was against bottom side Crotone (0-0)
  • Only two of their 10 matches have seen the under (Fiorentina and Crotone), Giampaolo possession based high pressing philosophy will likely mean we see this trend continuing
  • What's interesting is how badly Torino are fading late in games, in first halves this season Torino are conceding just 0.6 goals per 1st half but 1.8 goals per 2nd half. Could this be a fitness issue with the team or that they press too hard in the beginning of games? Whatever the reason it's worth keeping in mind for live betting purposes
  • Torino are missing a few players here and won't be at full strength, their back 4 looks quite weak to me, Singo at RB (2.71 goals against per 90) Bremer at CB (2.38 goals against per 90) Lyanco at CB (2.38 goals against per 9o) and Rodriguez LB (2.59 goals against per 90)
  • With this in mind I don't see them keeping a clean sheet, Udinese are quite capable and will be full of confidence after back to back wins over Lazio and Genoa.

Udinese

  • Udinese haven't been that prolific this season but they have been slightly better offensively than their goal count shows. Considering they haven't played any of the bottom tier defences this season they should probably have a bit more success in front of goal here.
  • Torino rank 4th worst in the league for xGA, and 2nd worst for goals against.
  • Udinese faced one weak defence this season, That came against Spezia earlier in the season (they're still not as bad as Torino) Against Spezia they failed to score but put up an impressive 1.81xG and got off 15 attempts.
  • Statistically at least, this is the weakest defence so far this season so they should have a goal in them
  • With 7 clean sheets in their last 20, only Inter Milan have a better clean sheet record in Serie A during that period. Torino are at the polar opposite of that table with 2 clean sheets in 20, only Bologna are worse.
  • As we saw in the Genoa game (1-0) if Udinese can get their noses in front here they should do a decent job of closing out the game.
  • Their team news is very positive with DM Arslan the only automatic starter missing

Final word: Udinese can be a solid defensive unit playing ugly football but that makes no sense here, they can win this match so we'll count on Torino giving up more goals here