Both teams to score: Yes at 2.85 with Pinnacle - 1 unit (min 2.7)

*The Over 2.5 line here has value too if you can't bet this line (Anything over 2.05 looks good)

Tunisia

  • After Tunisia's shock loss to Equatorial Guinea, three teams are now in contention to qualify from the group.
  • It would take something of a miracle for Tunisia to be eliminated because of their superior goal difference but still not inconceivable. Zambia are a decent side and held their own when they last met.
  • When they met in Zambia (0-2 win), Zambia were weakened and didn't have Sakala, Daka, or Mwepu available. Despite that, Tunisia still allowed 13 attempts on their goal, totalling 1.21xGA (The highest xGA total allowed during qualification)
  • The market seems to believe this Tunisia defence is impenetrable, but I don't think so
  • Equatorial Guinea and Mauritania are not at the same level as Zambia in my opinion, especially in the attacking third.
  • Before these WCQ games, they played 4 AFCON qualification games and conceded in 3 (Equatorial Guinea, Tanzania, and Libya)
  • In attack, we shouldn't worry too much about Tunisia registering a goal; they have scored at a rate of 1.6 per 90 with 1.65xG during these qualifiers.
  • Over the last calendar year, they have played three competitive games at home and have scored at a rate of 2.67 goals with 2.15xG per 90. Zambia need a big win here, so they likely leave holes too

Zambia

  • Zambia are coming off a dominant win over Mauritania, winning 4-0 and generating 3.07xG.
  • That result may have come too little too late, but I don't believe that will discourage them from taking the game to Tunisia
  • As mentioned, they did a decent job when the two last met and this time, they will offer a lot more in attack, with Sakala and Daka likely partnering up top again
  • Patson Daka has featured in 13 WC and AFCON qualification games for Zambia; from the games he's featured in, Zambia have scored at least once in 92.3%.
  • As for Sakala, he's coming off two hat-tricks in the last 16 days, one for Rangers and one in Zambia's previous match against Mauritania; he's in form and playing with confidence.
  • The Zambia manager is quoted as saying, "One good thing is that it will be an open game. So we have got nothing to fear,", he also stated that Zambia's best way to defend is to attack

Final word: Tunisia are a robust defensive side, but I feel the market has overvalued them a bit here; yes a draw will see them qualify, but I don't see them playing too negatively here; that game plan has backfired in their last two matches (0-0 with Mauritania, and the 1-0 loss to Equatorial Guinea)