Frankfurt +0 Asian Handicap (Draw no Bet) at 2.07 with Pinnacle (min 1.9) - 2 units

Union Berlin

  • Union are coming off three back to back wins over Hoffenheim (Hoffenheim red card killed the game) Arminia (2nd worst in league) and Koln (6th worst in league)
  • As some of you might remember, Union tend to do very well against teams in the bottom half of the table, but pretty poor against the better teams in the league.
  • Looking at their last 10 we can see that Union have lost 9 of their last 10 matches against teams in the top half of the table. Currently Frankfurt sit 11th but their xG differential which is probably a more accurate gauge has them around 6th/7th best in the league
  • Last season Adi Hutter's style of play caused Union all kinds of problems, from their two matches Frankfurt put up an impressive 4.72xG from their two meetings in 19/20
  • So far this season, Union have played two teams that finished in the top half last season, Hoffenheim and Gladach, as we now Hoffenheim were handicapped with their early red card, but how did they fare against Gladbach?
  • They drew 1-1 but probably didn't deserve too, Union generated just 0.77xG to Gladbach's 1.48. Union got off a lot of attempts on goal in that game but nothing of real substance.
  • Union's team news isn't great either. Christian Gentner (starting CM) Keven Schlotterbeck (starting CB) Anthony Ujah (Rotation CF) and Pohjanpalo (rotation CF) will all be unavailable. CB Florian Hübner is also a doubt

Frankfurt

  • Frankfurt have had a tougher schedule than Union but have fared well so far, last match they took on RB Leipzig and drew 1-1.
  • Frankfurt have only been beaten once this season and that came against the European Champions. (Bayern)
  • In terms of their xG differential Frankfurt are certainly top tier in the Bundesliga this season (+0.43 per 90 mins)
  • This season like last season, Frankfurt are one of the best teams in the league for pressing efficiency (PPDA), only Leverkusen and Bayern have been better in that department this season
  • Union are yet to play any of the top ranking PPDA teams this season, but if we look back to last season we see them struggling a lot with teams that ranked high for PPDA (Top 4: Leverkusen, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg, and Bayern) They lost 6 of 8 games. The two games they didn't came against Frankfurt (1-2), a game they were gifted on a silver plate (both goals individual errors), The other a 2-2 with Wolfsburg they should have lost (xG 0.56-1.86)
  • Frankfurt's team news is a bit more positive, Only Bakrok is out (Coronavirus) but he's not an automatic starter
  • With no European distractions this season we can expect a little bit more consistency this season.

Final word: Expect Frankfurt to build on their momentum from last week and at the very least avoid defeat