Union Berlin to win at 1.69 with Bet Victor - 2 units (Don’t bet below 1.63)
  • Mainz have sacked Beierlorzer so assistant Jan-Moritz Lichte will take charge of this match
  • To make matters worse for Mainz they will be without two starters in defence. Bote Baku (RB) was sold to Wolfsburg today and Moussa Niakhaté (CB) is suspended
  • Niakhaté was Mainz most used player last season while Baku the 3rd most
  • When hosting teams in the bottom half, Union are unbeaten in 7 of their last 8 (5 wins with 12 scored and 5 conceded). Like I mentioned in the last preview with Union, they tend to pick up most of their points against the bottom half and struggle against the top half
  • With 2.13 points per game last season at home to bottom-half teams, Union ranked 5th best in the league for these types of matches
  • Overall (home/away) they are unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 against teams in the bottom half
  • Despite their disappointments against Augsburg on MD1 they didn’t play that badly (3-1 loss) and improved on it in MD2 picking up a draw against Top 4 candidates Gladbach
  • Unlike Mainz, Union have no new injuries or suspensions and should remain unchanged from their 1-1 draw with Gladbach
  • Last season these two played out a draw in their first meeting and then Union beat Mainz 3-2 away from home. In my opinion, Union have improved while Mainz have declined
  • On the road last season Mainz ranked 3rd worst for xGA and 4th worst for goals conceded. This season they rank 2nd worst for xGA and goals against (only Schalke are worse)
  • In their last match Mainz took on newly-promoted Stuttgart and were dominated for a large portion of the match (xG 1.04-2.97 in Stuttgart’s favour)

Final word: With players going on strike last week (See Ádám Szalai news) key defenders missing and a caretaker manager I think Union will be too strong for the visitors. I’ve taken the +0 (Draw no bet) insurance as Union aren’t the most prolific in front of goal. If you'd prefer to take some extra risk I see no issues backing Union above 2.25 (to win)