Both teams to score: Yes at 1.75 with Bet365 - 2 units
- Betis who are favoured in this match will be a lot weaker at the back for this game, Aïssa Mandi their best CB is suspended and new No.1 Claudio Bravo is injured.
- Victor Ruiz who arrived from Besiktas this summer should replace Mandi at CB, while Joel Robles will start between the sticks.
- Robles had a 15.2% clean sheet percentage and conceded 1.5 goals per 90 last season
- So far this season under Pellegrini we have seen Betis give up 1.35xG per 90 and 1.5 goals per 90, there’s almost no difference in their numbers since last season
- If we filter this to last season we see Betis giving up 1.74 goals per 90 when on the road
- Despite defensive concerns though, I think Betis will have some success going forward.
- Betis achieved their highest Goals-per 90 (1.72) and xG per 90 (1.51) with William Carvalho in their team, he’s expected to start here in a double pivot with Guido Rodriguez. In attack Fekir, Canales, Joaquin, and Moron should provide adequate firepower to ensure Betis find the net at least once.
- Valencia have also been weak at the back this season, they’ve allowed 1.55xGA per match despite not playing a Top 6 side yet
- Valencia are expected to line up with Guillamón and Diakhaby at CB, with those two in the team last season Valencia gave up around 1.5 goals per 90 mins. Thierry Correia (2.07 goals conceded per 90 when playing) who hasn’t played much is expected to start at RB, with Doménech in goal too this backline doesn’t fill me with any confidence.
- Can we rely on Valencia to find the net tonight? I think so, as we discussed Betis are weakened at the back and Valencia tend to have success at the Mestalla scoring in 21 of their last 22 league games. In this fixture last season they scored twice
Final word: There’s good reason to expect a fairly open game here, both teams will see it as winnable and both backlines are weak in my opinion.