- This usually wouldn’t be a bet I’d have much interest in as Verona have been excellent at home this season however there are reasons to fade Serie A’s surprise package.
- First off, they’ve had one less day’s rest than Atalanta. Verona played yesterday in a tough game against Roma (2-1 loss) while Atalanta played on Tuesday and heavily rotated their XI
- Verona who’s squad is skinny could not afford such a luxury and now there’s a good chance they’ll be without their best defender Marash Kumbulla. About 5 or 6 other squad players have to be evaluated for this match so the squad could be quite thin.
- CM's like Veloso and Amrabat have been excellent this season but they've played almost every minute since the restart. When Amrabat missed out recently (rest or suspension I can't remember) recently they lost 2-0 to one of the worst teams in the league (Brescia)
- In terms of motivation we have to give the advantage to Atalanta too, although their chance is slim, they can still catch Juve if results go their way. Verona now have nothing to play for. The Europa League places are out of reach now with Roma, Milan, and Napoli battling it out.
- Verona’s coach (Juric) got sent off against Roma and won’t be on the sidelines, suspensions like this are often overlooked but can have a huge impact
- Verona have been pretty poor against the Top 6 this season (W1 D3 L6) and lost the last meeting between the two (3-2, xG 2.52-1.19 in Atalanta's favour)
- As you can see below, Verona created just two decent chances, both were in the same passage of play too. Atalanta dominated without their best XI
When facing teams in the middle-third (Verona 9th) of the table, Atalanta have won 8 of their last 10 with 30 scored and only 8 conceded
Even when we filter this to away games we see they're are the best road team in Serie A with 2.19 points take per game and 2.68 goals per game.
Verdict: If this was a rested and healthy Verona team with Juric on the sideline I'd have no interest in this bet. However that's not the case and Atalanta will have the upper hand when it comes to match fitness, ability, squad depth, and motivation.
Atalanta -1 Asian Handicap at 1.73 with 188bet - 2 units (Don't bet below 1.64)