West Ham

Things haven’t been pretty under David Moyes, so far the Hammers have managed just two wins from 10 with 1.8 goals conceded per match. Their two wins also came against teams in the bottom 6 (Southampton and Bournemouth)

  • West Ham are in real danger of going down, before this match week the bookies were quoting about a 30% chance that they go down.
  • Moyes has lost all 6 of his encounters with teams in the top half of the table. From those 6 games, they scored 3 times and conceded 13
  • Overall we’ve seen West Ham lost 8 of their last 10 against teams in the top half with 6 scored and 18 conceded. Only Aston Villa have been worse
  • Although their attacking output has been far from spectacular, their xG data indicates they’re overperforming by about +5 goals on the non-penalty xG for the season
  • West Ham also have the 2nd worst xGA (expected goals against) in the league with again Villa being the only team worse this season.
  • West Ham rank 3rd worst in the league for home dominance, only Villa and Newcastle are worse.
  • As you can see there’s not too much reason for optimism.

Wolves

Wolves are still very much involved in the UCL race but this has to be treated as a must-win game.

  • When these two met earlier this season, Wolves ran out comfortable 2-0 winners with an xG score of 1.82-0.5
  • In Wolves other matches with similar strength defences they’ve looked very comfortable.
  • They got past Villa 2-1 with an xG score of 2.1-0.47. Against Norwich, they won 2-1 and 3-0 with a combined xG score of 4.9-1.63. Against Newcastle, they drew 1-1 twice but the xG score was close to identical to the other matches mentioned above.
  • Wolves also have a clean bill of health for this match so we should expect their strongest XI
  • Behind only Man City, Liverpool, and Leicester, Wolves are the best road team in the league in terms of their xG difference
  • Lastly, Wolves have amazing fitness levels and considering the lack of match sharpness I’d favour them to be better prepared than this West Ham side
Wolves to win at 2.15 with Betway - 1.5 units