Augsburg +0.5 Asian Handicap at 2.09 with Bet Victor (don't bet below 2.00)
- Wolfsburg have started the season poorly and are still without defensive regulars Mbabu, William, and Pongračić.
- Going forward much like last season has been a problem for Wolfsburg who lean heavily on Wout Weghorst for goals. From their two matches this season (Freiburg and Leverkusen) they have averaged 0.5 goals per 90 and 0.62xG per 90.
- Remarkably from 189 mins of play in the Bundesliga so far they've only managed 3 attempts on target. They also have the lowest amount of attempts from open play
- At the other end, things have been concerning, particularly in the Freiburg game (1.77xGA and 18 shots allowed).
- Even in their last UEL match with Desna (UEL) they didn’t look great with most of their good chances coming from set-pieces.
- Wolfsburg scored 13 headed goals in the Bundesliga last season, only Eintracht and Koln were better. However, Augsburg were one of the best in this category only allowing 7 headed goals (5th best in the league). So far this season they rank 2nd best in the league for 'Aerial duels won' with both CB’s Uduokhai and Gouweleeuw looking dominant.
- Wolfsburg who played on Sunday also have a game on Thursday away in Athens (UEL qualifier) considering their skinny squad I give Augsburg (8 days of rest/preparation) the upper hand
- Wolfsburg’s last 20 matches at home has seen them win just 6 times. Excluding promoted teams, only Schalke and Bremen are worse at home.
- When appointed manager of Augsburg, Heiko Herrlich vowed to fix their broken defence and he’s done a far better job than his predecessors. With 12 matches under his belt, his side are unbeaten in 8 and are only giving up on average 1 goal per game
- So far this season (incl DFB Pokal) they have won 3 from 3 including an impressive 2-0 over Dortmund at the weekend
- Dortmund were bad at the weekend but I don’t think we should take away from Augsburg’s performance
- Augsburg have no significant absentees or suspensions and are expected to line up as they did in their opening two games
Final word: Confidence will be sky high after the Dortmund result and with the added preparation I expect Augsburg to continue their good form and avoid defeat here.