Gladbach +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.6 with Pinnacle/Bet365 (1.53 min) - 2 units

Wolfsburg

  • Wolfsburg are on a 5 game win streak at the moment but the only win of any significance was the 0-1 win over Leverkusen, in that match they generated 0.83xG and conceded 1.35xGA
  • The other 4 wins came over Freiburg, Schalke, Mainz, and Augsburg
  • Oliver Glasner (Wolfsburg manager) has gone up against Marco Rose 11 times in his career and only managed 2 wins. One of which came last season (2-1) a game where Gladbach had no shortage of absentees'. (Strobl, Bénes, and Beyer all played and are nowhere near the 1st team now)
  • Overall this season we're seeing an over performance from Wolfsburg in defence, they are only allowing 0.95 goals against per 90 but 1.32xGA per 90
  • In attack their xG and goals are pretty much inline with each other (1.6 goals per 90, 1.69xG per 90)
  • When facing top 6 sides Wolfsburg have been poor with only 2 wins from their last 10 (10 scored 18 conceded)
  • We mentioned the Leverkusen game above but let's take a look at a few prior to that.
  • vs RBL they were 2nd best despite the 2-2 (xG 0.83-2.74 in RBL's favour)
  • vs Dortmund they lost 2-0 but were probably deserving of at least a point (2.08-1.9 in Wolfsburg's favour)
  • vs Bayern they lost 2-1 (Bayern without Kimmich, Goretzka, Pavard, and Davies)
  • vs Gladbach earlier in the season they played out a 1-1 with Gladbach which they were 2nd best (cG 2.11-1.34 in
  • vs Leverkusen in their opening game of the season they played out a bore 0-0 with Leverkusen
  • If we're going purely off xG difference in the Bundesliga this season then Wolfsburg rank 7th best (currently sitting 3rd)

Gladbach

  • Gladbach have no mid-week UCL commitments so have no reason not to play their best XI, no starters are missing
  • In their last match they were poor (heavy rotation) but Koln scoring twice off their 3 shots on target (0.43 total xG) was rather unlucky
  • For this one we can expect the return of Elvedi, Bensebaini, Kramer, Plea and Thuram to the starting XI
  • Of players with 10+ matches this season, Gladbach average their highest team goals per game and xG per game with both Pléa and Thuram on the pitch
  • Gladbach have lost 4 times this season, the last we mentioned above, let's examine the other
  • 3-0 loss to Dortmund at the start of the season: They deserved to lose but not by such a large margin. (Pléa, Thuram, Embolo didn't start)
  • 4-3 loss to Leverkusen, Gladbach the better side on the day and probably didn't deserve to lose (xG 1.54-3.02 in Gladbach's favour)
  • 2-1 loss to Hoffenheim, another game Gladbach should have won (xG 2.54-1.94 in Gladbach's favour) Thuram's red card in the 2nd half cost them in the end

Final: Gladbach cost us last weekend but in hindsight a lot went against us with the XI and then Koln scoring off their only two notable chances. They can easily do enough to avoid defeat here.