Wolves

Wolves automatic UCL qualification is almost certainly off the table now (4% chance assuming the Man City ban is upheld). For that reason it wouldn't be a surprise to see Nuno rotate slightly.

Wolves have a legitimate shot at winning the UEL so they would be wise to make sure players are healthy and not burned out when the competition resumes next month.

  • Nuno remarkably only used one sub against Sheff Utd. Since the restart, we’ve seen very little rotation and these players have to be running on fumes at this stage. Adama Traore played through pain in the last match and surely won’t be risked here again. Neto is another who is a doubt
  • Of players with 2000+ mins this season Wolves generate on average their best xG with Adama on the pitch (1.33 team xG per 90) If he’s not risked here they should struggle in the final third
  • Wolves had three wins ‘to nil’ against weak opposition to start the restart, from those matches their xG was pretty low considering the opponents (0.82 per 90)
  • Since then they’ve lost ‘to nil’ against Arsenal and Sheff Utd. Their xG against both was horrendous
  • Like we mentioned mid-week Wolves are heavily reliant on the Adama > Jimenez linkup.
  • Is there another reason for Wolves struggles? An interesting post from Tom Worville on the Athletic showed that drinks breaks are affecting Wolves momentum massively. All season Wolves have been a “2nd half” team with fitness levels far above a lot of the other teams in the league. These drinks breaks seem to be levelling the playing field so to speak.
  • Wolves have won just 3 of their last 10 matches against middle-third teams (16 scored 16 conceded)
  • Wolves rank 10th for chance creation this season so I see them having problems breaking Everton down.

Everton

  • Under Ancelotti Everton are unbeaten in 12/16 games. Their losses came to Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Spurs.
  • Only two of those losses were fair losses, against Arsenal they created more chances and against Spurs the xG was 0.51-0.4 despite being reduced to 10 men early.
  • Even away to Man City, Everton only conceded 1.81xGA
  • In terms of chance creation, Everton have been superior to Wolves this season. Everton rank 7th best in the league for xG
Everton +0.5 at 1.85 with Pinnacle/Bet Victor - 1.5 units