Wolves

Wolves who started their season at the end of July 2019 are now still competing and may do so until the end of the month, we've never seen a season last so long for a group of players and I feel it will take its toll on the players eventually.

  • Wolves took home a 1-1 from Athens in the 1st leg so they are in the driving seat. Was that first leg a very telling result though? In my opinion they weren't that great
  • Wolves played against 10 men for 65 mins and generated a total of just 0.59xG and 1 goal (scored from a long range effort that was deflected). Olympiakos also scored and took the lead with 10 men on the pitch.
  • Defensively Wolves have been a lot more porous in Europe allowing 0.86xGA and 0.87 goals per game. When you remove the likes of Crusaders and Pyunik this number obviously rises.
  • If we ignore those games against minnows Crusaders and Pyunik, Wolves have only kept clean sheets in 36% of their games in Europe this season
  • Wolves have been excellent defensively at home in Europe this season (0.33 goals against per 90) but they are overperforming with an average xGA of 0.77
  • Espanyol, Braga, and Torino all came here and created a decent amount of chances.
  • Have Wolves had it easy in Europe? quick answer Yes!
  • Olympiakos rank 29th in the Euro Club Index which means they're the strongest side Wolves have faced in Europe this season. Torino (98th) Espanyol (96th) Braga (51st) Bratislava (123rd) Pyunik (498th) and Crusaders (572nd) are all far weaker opposition than the Erythrolefki

Olympiakos

  • Olympiakos have scored 1.54 goals per 90 and generated 1.34xG per 90 in Europe this season, these include their matches in the UCL group stages against strong opposition like Bayern Munich and Spurs.
  • Overall they have found the net in 85% of their Euro games this season. Bayern Munich away and at home to Arsenal the only exceptions.
  • Domestically it's been busy as usual with 2.06 goals per 90 and 1.92xG
  • Under Pedro Martins Olympiakos have scored in 75% of matches in Europe (23 game sample size)
  • Martins has also gone H2H with his old friend Nuno Espirito Santo 8 times in the past so I think he'll know what to expect from this one dimensional Wolves side.
  • Martins motivation couldn't be higher either, he's talked about his desire to move to the Premier League and after already knocking out Arsenal this could make bigger clubs stand up and take notice of one of the most under appreciated coaches in Europe.

Final word: With José Sá (GK) and Rúben Semedo (CB) both missing for Olympiakos they'll likely have a very attacking game plan focusing on exploiting Wolves weaknesses down the flanks. Considering the nature of the tie and how undervalued Olympiakos have been in Europe all season I make this a value bet.

Olympiakos to score at 1.81 with Pinnacle - 1.5 units