Under 2.5 Total Goals @ 2.02 with Pinnacle - 2 units (minimum odds 1.9)

Zenit

  • Zenit are without Sardar Azmoun, Sebastián Driussi, Wendell and Malcom for this match
  • Azmoun ranks 2nd in this squad for goals per 90 in all competitions while Sebastián Driussi is the xG per 90 leader on this team
  • Last season Azmoun and Driussi ranked 2nd and third for attack production with 0.92 and 0.55 Goals + Assists per 90
  • Zenit's xG and goal total in Europe over the last two seasons has been very weak so that should be compounded here with their attacking absentees
  • Last season they put up 1.17 goals per game with 1.03xG (last season they had a very favourable group too)
  • This season even worse with 0.5 goals per 90 and 0.8xG per 90

Lazio

  • Lazio are expected to line up without key attacking players tonight, Immobile and Luis Alberto won't be included in Inzaghi's XI according to Gazzetta dello Sport
  • Expected XI: Reina, Luiz Felipe, Hoedt, Acerbi, Fares, SMS, Parolo, Akpa Akpro, Marusic, Muriqi, Andreas Pereira
  • Of players who have featured more than 6 times this season (all competitions) both Immobile and Luis Alberto have had the biggest impact on Lazio's xG team success per 90
  • Lazio expect to line up with Muriqi and Pereira in attack, neither of which have had a huge impact on Lazio's xG per 90 this season (small sample size)
  • If we look at expected assists + expected goals we can see the difference in contribution between Immobile and the others. Immobile xG+xA is 0.71, by far the highest impact on Lazio's attacking production. Muriqi has 0.11 while Pereira has 0.13
  • Luis Alberto is also the main creator on this team, both this season and last he leads the squad with expected assists and actual assists
  • At the back I would say Lazio have been quite responsible in Europe, against Dortmund they were near flawless allowing 0 big chances (1.16xGA total)
  • Against Brugge considering how decimated their squad was they did well only allowing 1.44xGA from open play with one big chance conceded from open play
  • A negative for the Italians is that almost all the players expected to play today played at the weekend against Torino, so don't expect high intensity

Final word: The creative and attacking absentees on either side are huge, and judging by Lazio's predicted XI I imagine they'll play a very cautious game