Zimbabwe +1 Asian Handicap at 1.83 with Pinnacle- 1.5 units (1.73 min)

Zimbabwe

  • Zimbabwe are fighting it out with Zambia for 2nd place in the group. Considering Zambia probably take 3 points off Botswana they'll need a positive result against the group leaders here
  • Zimbabwe scored in the earlier meeting last week and generated a healthy 1.5xG in the process ( 8 attempts on goal)
  • Taking the game back to Harare however should be a big advantage for them
  • Most of the Algerian squad have travelled from Europe and even played in a temperate climate in the meeting last week (Algiers) Here's they are travelling into a much hotter climate and will be playing at a slight altitude (1,490 m)
  • Zimbabwe have scored in 11 of their last 12 home AFCON qualifiers, the one failed attempt came against Botswana (a game they dominated)
  • With Lyon's Tino Kadewere now leading the line they have a very young and capable goal threat. In the game on Thursday he had 4 attempts, scored a goal and was responsible for 1.04 of their xG

Algeria

  • Algeria's record under Djamel Belmadi is phenomenal, he even guided them to an AFCON win over Senegal last year
  • On the road Algeria leave a lot to desired though, let's examine recent results
  • Algeria's last road game was against Botswana, one of the worst teams in Africa. They won 0-1 and managed to generate just 0.91 xG while getting off 1 shot on target
  • vs Togo they won 1-4 but they weren't great. They had 4 attempts on goal that all found the net (0.68xG) Togo's keeper had a very suspect performance
  • vs Benin they lost 1-0 again posting very weak xG numbers (0.72) while getting off just 3 attempts on target
  • Prior to that they took on the Gambia and drew 1-1 in another weak performance away from Algiers. They got off just 3 attempts on target (1.02xG) while allowing 0.96 xG to 166th ranked Gambia
  • From Algeria's last 10 away fixtures in AFCON qualification they have conceded in 7 of their last 10
  • The 3 clean sheets came against Seychelles (one of the worst teams in World football) Malawi (rank 123rd) and their most recent against Botswana (rank 149th)

Final word: I know we have played a few away teams this week (Zambia and Mali) but home advantage is a big deal in Africa and with Algeria travelling a massive distance to play in heat and altitude I think we could be in for a shock. Zimbabwe played well in the last match and will approach this game with confidence